{"id":2733,"date":"2024-11-07T16:20:10","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T16:20:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/?p=2733"},"modified":"2024-11-29T16:21:50","modified_gmt":"2024-11-29T16:21:50","slug":"mosbindja-civile-perballe-regjimeve-moderne-numer-apo-permbajtje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/mosbindja-civile-perballe-regjimeve-moderne-numer-apo-permbajtje\/","title":{"rendered":"Mosbindja Civile p\u00ebrball\u00eb regjimeve moderne: Num\u00ebr apo P\u00ebrmbajtje?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pranvera Shehaj –\u00a0\u201cLaboratori i Ideve\u201d, Departamenti Brain Gain, Partia Demokratike<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

N\u00ebse p\u00ebrpos k\u00ebrkesave t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, autokrat\u00ebt zgjedhin t\u00eb mos b\u00ebjn\u00eb hap pas, tre jan\u00eb t\u00eb vetmet rrug\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme se si diktator\u00ebt klasik\u00eb e modern\u00eb rr\u00ebzohen nga pushteti: s\u00eb pari, p\u00ebrmes veprimeve t\u00eb faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm t\u00eb regjimit, si\u00e7 jan\u00eb grushtet e shtetit; s\u00eb dyti p\u00ebrmes mobilizimit masiv, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb revoltat dhe mosbindjet civile, deri luft\u00ebrat civile; s\u00eb treti vet\u00ebm vdekja p\u00ebr shkaqe natyrore i largon ata nga pushteti.<\/p>\n

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Nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb vitet 1960 dhe \u05f370, gati gjysma e autokrat\u00ebve u larguan nga pushteti p\u00ebrmes grushteve t\u00eb shtetit, pas p\u00ebrfundimit t\u00eb luft\u00ebs s\u00eb ftoht\u00eb, ndryshimi i agjend\u00ebs gjeopolitike t\u00eb vendeve per\u00ebndimore, \u00e7oi n\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb numrit t\u00eb diktaturave militare kudo n\u00eb bot\u00eb, nga 38% n\u00eb gati 10%, por edhe n\u00eb konsolidimin e regjimeve q\u00eb kombinojn\u00eb zgjedhjet elektorale me forma autoritarizmi.Sot flasim p\u00ebr rreth 88 shtete t\u00eb globit q\u00eb p\u00ebrjetojn\u00eb nj\u00eb form\u00eb autoritarizmi e q\u00eb korrespondojn\u00eb me 70% t\u00eb popullsis\u00eb globale.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Prej vitit 1990, ndryshimi i panoram\u00ebs solli p\u00ebr rrjedhoj\u00eb edhe ndryshimin e form\u00ebs p\u00ebr rr\u00ebzimin e regjimeve diktatoriale dhe autoritare, nj\u00eb trend t\u00eb ri t\u00ebpolitik\u00ebs autoritariste:revoltat masive. Prej vitit 2010, duke nisur me nj\u00eb zinxhir protestash prej zgjimit arab q\u00eb rr\u00ebzoi disa nga udh\u00ebheq\u00ebsit m\u00eb jet\u00ebgjat\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb konsoliduar bindja se autokrat\u00ebt modern\u00eb jan\u00eb vulnerab\u00ebl ndaj revoltave t\u00eb mas\u00ebs dhe mosbindjeve civile.Trendi politik i revoltave t\u00eb mas\u00ebs dhe taktik\u00ebs s\u00eb mosbindjes civile, insiston n\u00eb rekomandimin p\u00ebr t\u00eb qen\u00eb jo t\u00eb dhunshme n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb mos provokojn\u00eb reagimin e shtetit policor represiv shproporcional, \u00e7ka step dhe \u00e7on n\u00eb hapa pas protestuesit. Sipas studimeve t\u00eb shumta politike, vet\u00ebm si masive dhe jo e dhunshme, mosbindja civile mund t\u00eb funksionoj\u00eb si nj\u00eb \u00e7el\u00ebs p\u00ebr rr\u00ebzimin e regjimeve autoritare moderne dhe shtrimin e rrug\u00ebs p\u00ebr vij\u00ebn demokratike.<\/p>\n

T\u00eb shumta dhe n\u00eb unison jan\u00eb studimet politike bazuar n\u00eb realitetet autoritare n\u00eb mbar\u00eb globin q\u00eb d\u00ebshmojn\u00eb se protestat jo t\u00eb dhunshme, kur jan\u00eb masive, kan\u00eb gati 2-fish m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb ken\u00eb sukses krahasuar me konfliktet e armatosura (53%vs 26%sukses politik). K\u00ebtij rekomandimi faktik i shtohet nj\u00eb influenc\u00eb n\u00eb shkencat politike e ofruar nga Harvard Kennedy School: Rregulli 3.5%. Sipas t\u00eb ashtuquajturit \u201cnumri magjik\u201d, q\u00eb nj\u00eb mosbindje civile ose revolt\u00eb masive t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbush\u00eb q\u00ebllimin e saj, at\u00eb t\u00eb rr\u00ebzimit t\u00eb autokratit, duhet rreth 3.5% e popullsis\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb marr\u00eb pjes\u00eb aktive n\u00eb protesta p\u00ebr t\u00eb siguruar ndryshime serioze politike. Shembuj q\u00eb p\u00ebrdoren p\u00ebr t\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur suksesin e k\u00ebtij\u05f3numri magjik\u2018nisin prej 1986 ku miliona filipinas mbush\u00ebn rrug\u00ebt e Manilas kund\u00ebr regjimit t\u00eb Marcos, n\u00eb 2003 n\u00eb \u2018Revolucionin e Tr\u00ebndafilave pa gjak\u2018 n\u00eb Gjeorgji, apo n\u00eb 2019 ku Sudani dhe Algjeria p\u00ebrmes l\u00ebvizjeve t\u00eb rezistenc\u00ebs rr\u00ebzuan autoritarizmin e president\u00ebve pas dekadash n\u00eb pushtet, etj.<\/p>\n

Politika shpik form\u00ebn e saj shpesh duke kund\u00ebrshtuar vetveten, dhe ky postulat vlen edhe kur ajo studiohet si shkenc\u00eb. Si p\u00ebr t\u00eb treguar se strategjia e masivitetit dhe e numrit magjik 3.5%, edhe pse e v\u00ebrtetuar shkenc\u00ebrisht dhe politikisht, nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e vetmja, s\u00ebrish evidenca politike rendit disa raste kur masiviteti jo gjithmon\u00eb garanton p\u00ebrmbushjen e q\u00ebllimit t\u00eb mosbindjes civile dhe jo gjithmon\u00eb triumfon p\u00ebrball\u00eb diktator\u00ebve e autokrat\u00ebve, si p\u00ebr shembullBjellorusia m\u00eb 2010 dhe 2020, Rusia m\u00eb 2011, Algjeria dhe Jordanian\u00eb Pranver\u00ebn Arabe, etj. N\u00eb t\u00eb tilla raste, masiviteti ka tronditur ekuilibrin e autokrat\u00ebve, por pa mundur t\u2018i jap\u00eb fund pushtetit t\u00eb tyre. Arsyet kan\u00eb qen\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme, por v\u00ebrtiten n\u00eb tre shtylla kryesore: reagimi shproporcional dhe agresiv i regjimeve diktatoriale dhe autoritare, nd\u00ebshkimet e menj\u00ebhershme n\u00eb forma t\u00eb ndryshme pas protestave, si dhe \u00e7ensura intensive p\u00ebr efektet q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb duke prodhuar l\u00ebvizja. P\u00ebr rrjedhoj\u00eb, mund t\u00eb themi sen\u00eb regjime dhe autokraci, numri jo domosdoshm\u00ebrisht garanton sukses dhe ky fakt hedh posht\u00eb mendimin nj\u00ebdimensional t\u00eb analist\u00ebve politik\u00eb n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri se revolta mund dhe duhet t\u00eb jet\u00eb vet\u00ebm dhe domosdoshm\u00ebrisht masive.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrball\u00eb q\u00ebndron nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr realitet. Ai i alternativ\u00ebs s\u00eb pamund\u00ebsis\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb garantuar masivitet t\u00eb bindsh\u00ebm: mosbindjet civile q\u00eb triumfojn\u00eb fal\u00eb p\u00ebrmbajtjes dhe jo numrit. Nd\u00ebr ndoshta 15 rastet historike t\u00eb mosbindjeve civile t\u00eb shekullit XX dhe XXI q\u00eb kan\u00eb ndryshuar historin\u00eb e shteteve dhe ku asnj\u00ebra nuk i p\u00ebrngjan tjetr\u00ebs n\u00eb form\u00eb e strategji, – t\u00eb gjitha t\u00eb nisura nga k\u00ebrkesa ekonomike, sociale ose politike t\u00eb nj\u00eb grupi t\u00eb caktuar n\u00eb shoq\u00ebri, – prej 1928 n\u00eb Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar (Deeds not words), po zgjedh ato q\u00eb n\u00eb kujtes\u00eb rrin\u00eb ndoshta m\u00eb rehat: \u201cJe suis le peuple\u201d, protesta e jelekverdh\u00ebve n\u00eb Franc\u00eb (2018-2019) dhe \u201cZu viel ist zu viel\u201d, protesta e fermer\u00ebve gjerman\u00eb n\u00eb Berlin (2023-2024). N\u00eb t\u00eb dyja rastet, k\u00ebrkesa ishte ekonomike; n\u00eb t\u00eb dyja rastet filozofia ishte mosbindje civile; n\u00eb asnj\u00eb nga rastet nuk u ndoq numri magjik i masivitetit; t\u00eb dyja zgjodh\u00ebn dhe u mbajt\u00ebn mend p\u00ebr identifikimin n\u00eb simbolik\u00eb dhe form\u00eb; p\u00ebrpos ngjyrimeve, m\u00eb shum\u00eb n\u00eb Franc\u00eb e m\u00eb pak n\u00eb Gjermani, ato shkaktuan nj\u00eb \u00e7rregullim civil t\u00eb jet\u00ebs s\u00eb vendit; n\u00eb t\u00eb dyja rastet mosbindja civile detyroi qeverit\u00eb respektive t\u00eb b\u00ebnin s\u00eb paku nj\u00eb hap pas.<\/p>\n

Ka vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb detaj q\u00eb l\u00ebndon optimizmin p\u00ebr t\u2018u mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb k\u00ebta shembuj t\u00eb fundit: as n\u00eb Franc\u00eb e as n\u00eb Gjermani, k\u00ebrkesa nuk iu drejtua nj\u00eb autokrati. N\u00eb nj\u00eb dilem\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb mbi strategjin\u00eb e mosbindjes civile q\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb autokracit\u00eb, ku nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb masiviteti mbetet objektiv sfidues e kur edhe n\u00ebse arrihet jo gjithmon\u00eb fiton mbi tentakulat e autokratit, e ku nga ana tjet\u00ebr forma t\u00eb revoltuara t\u00eb mosbindjes civile gjejn\u00eb p\u00ebrgjigje n\u00eb dhun\u00eb dhe arrestime, \u00e7far\u00eb do t\u00eb sugjeronte politika si shkenc\u00eb e si realitet si guid\u00eb strategjike p\u00ebr mosbindjen civile t\u00eb Partis\u00eb Demokratike n\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn politike p\u00ebr qeveri teknike, qartazi drejtuar nj\u00eb autokrati? (p\u00ebrgjigje e dh\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb Pjes\u00ebn 2 nga 2 t\u00eb ciklit: \u201cMosbindje civile n\u00eb kushtet e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb: Dy shtyllat e \u00e7lirimit\u201d).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pranvera Shehaj –\u00a0\u201cLaboratori i Ideve\u201d, Departamenti Brain Gain, Partia Demokratike N\u00ebse p\u00ebrpos k\u00ebrkesave t\u00eb opozit\u00ebs, autokrat\u00ebt zgjedhin t\u00eb mos b\u00ebjn\u00eb hap pas, tre jan\u00eb t\u00eb vetmet rrug\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme se si diktator\u00ebt klasik\u00eb e modern\u00eb rr\u00ebzohen nga pushteti: s\u00eb pari, p\u00ebrmes veprimeve t\u00eb faktor\u00ebve t\u00eb brendsh\u00ebm t\u00eb regjimit, si\u00e7 jan\u00eb grushtet e shtetit; s\u00eb dyti […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2734,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politike"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2733"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2733\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2735,"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2733\/revisions\/2735"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2734"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/braingain.pd.al\/sq\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}